MODERN TRENDS AND FACTORS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH OF TAJIKISTAN

This article analyzes the nature of Tajikistan’s high economic growth rates in 2020–2025, drawing on statistics from international organizations and national agencies. The methodological framework of the study is based on R. Solow’s model, the endogenous growth theories of P. Romer and R. Lucas, and H. Cheneri’s concept of structural transformation. The study tests the hypothesis that, contrary to the predictions of endogenous growth theories, the growth of physical capital in the raw materials sectors of Tajikistan’s economy does not lead to an increase in total factor productivity. A quantitative analysis of sectoral shifts was conducted using the structural change coefficient and the Herfindahl index. The conclusion was reached that structural reforms must be deepened to ensure long-term sustainability. It has been found that structural transformation remains incomplete: while agriculture accounts for a high proportion of employment, its contribution to GDP is low, and industry does not create enough jobs. The study examines factors driving economic growth, including investment in the energy sector, remittances from migrants, and fiscal and monetary policy. It concludes that further structural reforms are necessary. Recommendations are presented on how to enhance the country’s competitiveness in order to ensure the long-term sustainability of economic development and the growth of public welfare.

theory of endogenous growth, growth factors, structural transformation, structural imbalances, growth models, employment rate.

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2026-04-06