NONLINEAR EFFECTS OF DIVERSIFICATION ON THE VOLUMES OF REGION INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

The article assesses the diversification of the region's industry and examines its impact on industrial production per capita. The study is based on a comparative assessment of the diversification of the region's industry and its impact on sustainable development over a seven-year period, followed by an extension of the time interval to ten years, which allows us to identify the dynamics of indicators and assess changes over the last three years. A brief analysis of existing methodological approaches to assessing industrial diversification is presented. In order to ensure comparability of results, unified Herfindahl-Hirschman index methodology was used to calculate the diversification coefficient. An analysis of the relationship between the diversification coefficient and industrial production per capita for the period 2014–2021 revealed a stable linear correlation, which characterizes the predominantly extensive nature of structural changes in the region's industry. Extending the time horizon of the study to 2024 by including more recent observations revealed a change in the nature of this relationship: it takes on a nonlinear, exponential form, reflecting the strengthening of the cumulative and multiplicative effects of diversification. In order to ensure comparability of results, a unified methodology for calculating the diversification coefficient was used. The results obtained indicate that the region's industry is transitioning to a more mature stage of development, in which structural diversification is beginning to act as a factor in the accelerated growth of industrial production. In general, it has been established that deeper diversification contributes to the development of the region's industry.

industrial diversification, linear dependence, exponential dependence, assessment, production volume, industrial production, correlation-regression analysis.

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2026-04-07